Rugby League · NRL · Negative-Binomial + Elo

Rugby (NRL) Analysis

Points-for/against from ESPN's schedule, a Negative-Binomial split score model (rugby's scoring variance is too high for plain Poisson), blended with Elo — plus sportsbook market edge and Kelly stake sizing.

v1 model — league averages, home advantage, and dispersion constants are provisional starting estimates, not yet backtested against a season of real NRL results. Treat outputs as directional until calibrated.

Match Query

⚙ Add sportsbook odds (enables value check)

Home odds (American)

Away odds (American)

Rabbitohs vs Knights Panthers vs Storm Broncos vs Roosters Sharks vs Eels

Match

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NRL

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Home

Points For/Game—

Points Against/Game—

Recent Form (L5)—

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Away

Points For/Game—

Points Against/Game—

Recent Form (L5)—

Win Probability

——%

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Victory Margin

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Home by 1-12

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Home by 13+

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Away by 1-12

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Away by 13+

Total points line: —

Market Comparison

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No Odds

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Model Edge

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Kelly Stake

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Market Prob

Supply odds above to see market comparison and value analysis.

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Recommendation

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AI Narrative

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Data Confidence

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Pipeline Trace