Sherdog record + fight history + FightMatrix ranking, blended with Glicko-2 (weight-class scoped, uncertainty-aware) — plus a separate method-of-victory model for KO/TKO, submission, and decision odds. If Sherdog can't fetch real data for a fighter, this stops and says so rather than falling back to a stale or partial source.
v1 model — league-average finish rates, blend weights, and the probability cap are provisional starting estimates, not yet backtested against real UFC results. Switched off ufcstats.com (JS anti-bot challenge), Tapology (Cloudflare-blocked), and ESPN (its historical fight-data coverage for MMA never came back conclusive after repeated testing) in favor of Sherdog as the sole fight-history source. Ring-rust (days since last fight) is not modeled yet. Treat outputs as directional until calibrated.